The Tennessee Governor's Race, Checked Against the Record

Research current as of October 23, 2026. Early voting runs through October 29. Election Day is November 3.

I'll be upfront about why this exists. I did this research mainly for me, so I could make an informed decision about the people on my ballot based on what's in the record instead of what's in my feed. I'm posting it because I hope it can help you do the same.

It started with a long Facebook post making the rounds, written by a longtime Republican consultant, laying out a year-by-year timeline of independent candidate David Hatley's past. Some of it sounded serious. Some of it sounded like it had been through a few retellings. I wanted to know which parts were true, and once I started pulling records, it made sense to hold every candidate to the same standard.

So that's what this is. For the four leading candidates I checked the same kinds of records, which means court records, campaign finance filings, polling releases, and news reports, with anything I couldn't confirm labeled that way. The records available aren't equal, since Blackburn has a long voting record and the independents have none, so the depth varies with what exists. I'm not telling you who to vote for. The facts do enough talking on their own.

The short version

• Marsha Blackburn leads every public poll, but both October polls have her under 50 percent.
• David Hatley's felony conviction and bankruptcies are real. They're also old, and he's written about them himself. Several of the viral claims about him are stretched, misdated, or have no source at all.
• Hatley has the most cash, all of it his own money. Blackburn has the most donors and by far the most outside money behind her.
• Jerri Green has the clearest position on Ballad Health, which is to end the monopoly. I found no public position from Blackburn or Lauren Pinkston. Hatley has criticized Ballad but hasn't offered a plan.
• Whoever wins will be in office when Ballad's state oversight ends in mid-2028. For the Tri-Cities, that may matter more than anything on the ads.

Who's actually on the ballot

Fifteen people are running for governor. The official sample ballot lists Republican Marsha Blackburn, Democrat Jerri Green, and 13 independents. Most of Tennessee could name two of them.

Only four appear in any public poll. That's Blackburn, Green, and independents David Hatley and Lauren Pinkston, and those four get full write-ups below. None of the other eleven shows up in a poll, and the ones whose filings I checked have raised little. I gave one of them, Robert Vick of Dandridge, a short section because he's from East Tennessee and has a real platform, but I can't honestly rank anyone fifth.

Tennessee hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide office in two decades and has never elected an independent governor, per the Lookout. Blackburn is the favorite. The question the polls are trying to answer is by how much, and how many Republican voters Hatley pulls away.

What the polls say

Who paid for a poll matters as much as what it says, so here's the fine print.

• Spry Strategies is the most recent poll with a full public methodology. It has Blackburn up about 11.
• Political Intelligence shows a two-point race, but the Green campaign released it and the firm has almost no public track record, according to WPLN. Its full methodology isn't public.
• TargetSmart was paid for by The Progress Fund, a Democratic PAC backing Green. You'll see one polling website list Hatley at 19 percent in this poll. The sponsor's own release says 10.
• The Beacon Center is a right-leaning Nashville think tank. Its release reported Blackburn and Green only.

Read together, the two polls with full published methodology, Spry and TargetSmart, both put Blackburn ahead by about 10 points, and one of those was paid for by Green's allies. Hatley draws low double digits and Pinkston around 2 percent. The only tight-race number comes from the poll the Green campaign released without its methodology.

Follow the money

The campaign accounts are only half the picture. The other half is outside money, which candidates don't control on paper and which paid for a large share of the TV ads and mail in this race.

• Behind Blackburn. Two PACs supporting her consolidated after raising $12 million, per the Lookout. The biggest check, $4.81 million, came from a Club for Growth-affiliated voucher group a month after her own U.S. Senate campaign gave a nearly identical amount to that organization's main PAC. Other top donors include billionaire Jeff Yass ($1 million) and payday lender Advance Financial ($800,000). One of those PACs spent nearly $5 million attacking John Rose in the primary, per the Times News.
• Against Hatley. A group called Choose Freedom PAC spent $4.2 million on ads and mailers against him in August and September, more than either Hatley's or Blackburn's campaign spent in that stretch, per the Times News. Its money, $4.2 million, came from Choose Freedom Inc., a Massachusetts dark-money group (Lookout). More on that in Hatley's section.
• Behind Green. The Progress Fund, a Democratic PAC, supports her and paid for the TargetSmart poll above. I found no outside spending on her behalf anywhere near the scale of the groups above.

The viral post, checked

Here's the timeline from the Facebook post that started this, checked claim by claim. The post's own source material is a website called DeadbeatDave.com, which carries the line "Paid for by and authorized by Marsha for Governor." Most of the claims below appear there first, with documents attached.

The post also argues that Hatley can only hand the race to Green, using a 40/40/20 model of Tennessee voters. The math in the post works fine. It just isn't what the best-documented polls show. Spry and TargetSmart, the two with full published methods, have Hatley and Pinkston combined at about 12 to 13 percent, and Blackburn leads in every survey. The Green-released Political Intelligence poll has Hatley alone at 19.

So is it a smear? Not in the sense of being made up. The core of it, the conviction, the bankruptcies, the liens, is documented, and Hatley has told that story himself. What the post adds is spin. It redates old liens to make them sound current, turns police allegations into facts, and closes with an insinuation about his divorces that nothing supports.

The candidates

Marsha Blackburn (Republican)

Who she is. U.S. senator since 2019, after 16 years in the U.S. House and a term in the state Senate before that. She won a three-way Republican primary in August with 43.6 percent, and President Trump endorsed her the next day.

What she's running on. Low taxes and no state income tax, spending cuts, expanding the school voucher program, public safety, and closer state work with federal immigration enforcement (campaign issues). On Medicaid expansion, she hasn't said yes or no (Tennessean candidate Q&A).

The record, checked.

• The 2016 opioid law. She co-sponsored a 2016 federal drug distribution law that a Washington Post and 60 Minutes investigation later found made it harder for the DEA to stop suspicious narcotics shipments. A dark-money ad this summer called her "Queen Pharma Mama" and implied she was paid for that vote. There's no evidence of that, and her lawyers demanded the ad be pulled (Lookout). The law is real. The bribery implication isn't supported.
• Insulin. In 2022 she voted against waiving a budget rule for a provision capping insulin costs (Senate roll call 314). That was a procedural vote, not a vote on an insulin bill, and that distinction matters if you see it in an ad.
• Broadband. In 2014 she won House passage of an amendment blocking the FCC from overriding state limits on city-run broadband (Congressional Research Service). That's relevant here, since municipal utilities are one of the ways rural areas get service.
• A pending lawsuit. A fired Austin Peay professor sued her in August, alleging she pressured the university over his speech. She calls it meritless, and nothing has been decided (USA TODAY Network).
• Debates. She declined the Tennessee Press Association's October 27 forum, the one nonpartisan public forum of the race (News From The States). Green, Hatley, and Pinkston agreed to attend.

The money. Her campaign has raised $12.8 million from more than 22,000 individual donors, with a median gift of $38, and 72 percent of her itemized dollars came from inside Tennessee (Who Funds Tennessee). Both of those are worth knowing. So is this. Donors who gave $5,000 or more make up 4 percent of her donors and 70 percent of the money from individuals. Her maximum-level PAC donors include the Tennessee Hospital Association, Acadia Healthcare, AT&T, the Tennessee Chamber, and a homebuilders' PAC. Then there's the $12 million in outside PACs described above.

Who's behind her. Trump, the Tennessee Chamber of Commerce, Sen. Bill Hagerty, Dave Ramsey, the NRA, the state firefighters' association, Club for Growth, and a long list of Republican legislators, including Northeast Tennessee's Tim Hicks and Rick Eldridge (Hagerty announcement, with her list, Hicks announcement). Her campaign treasurer is Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs, whose name is in the footer of the DeadbeatDave site.

The case for and against. The Chamber's CEO said she "understands what it takes to keep Tennessee competitive," and her endorsers mostly cite experience and low taxes. Her opponents have hit her for skipping the debates, and Green and Hatley have both called out her outside money. The donor list above is in the public record for you to weigh.

Jerri Green (Democrat)

Who she is. Memphis City Council member since 2024, appointed interim Shelby County chief public defender this year, and a former deputy chief of staff to Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris. She won the Democratic primary with 69 percent.

What she's running on. End the grocery tax and shift more of the load onto corporations, expand Medicaid, $50 million to clear childcare waitlists, end the voucher program, a moratorium on data center incentives, labor rights, gun background checks and red flag laws, and ending state police cooperation with ICE (campaign platform). Her plan to use unspent federal welfare funds for medical debt and housing deposits is specific, but I couldn't confirm the state can legally spend that money that way.

The record, checked.

• The ICE resolution. Blackburn's campaign says Green voted for a resolution to remove ICE and the National Guard from Memphis. That checks out. On October 20 the council passed a nonbinding resolution asking both to leave, 9-0, with only Ford Canale abstaining (Lookout). Green wasn't a sponsor, but she backed it in committee and said she'd vote yes, calling the Guard deployment unconstitutional (Memphis Flyer), and the Tennessee Star reports she was among the nine yes votes. The council has no power to remove either one, so the vote is a statement, not an order. A separate claim that she wants to "abolish ICE" traces back to social posts, not to anything I found her saying on record.
• The "socialist" label. It's Blackburn's characterization, not a finding. Green's platform is progressive. It doesn't propose anything resembling the end of private business.
• Poll spin. Her campaign promoted a 42-41 result from the TargetSmart poll. That number measured trust after voters heard candidate biographies. On the actual vote question, Blackburn led 45-36 (sponsor's release (archived)).
• Her own claims. Her campaign says she helped clear $17 million in Memphis medical debt and raised county workers to a living wage. Those are campaign claims I didn't independently verify.

The money. Nearly $1 million raised in the third quarter and $559,539 in the bank (Registry). Her PAC money is mostly labor, including the electrical workers, pipe trades, and building trades unions.

Who's behind her. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Rep. Steve Cohen, former Republican House Speaker Kent Williams of Elizabethton, Washington County Commissioner Jodi Jones, Indivisible Tri-Cities, Teamsters Local 667, the Tennessee Building Trades, the Sierra Club, and the immigrant-rights group TIRRC Votes (endorsement list).

The case for and against. Her endorsers, mostly labor groups and Democrats, back her affordability and health care agenda. Blackburn's campaign calls her a radical socialist. My own read is that her platform has the most dollar figures attached of the four, and that much of it would need a Republican supermajority to pass.

David Hatley (Independent)

Who he is. Elizabethton native living in Gray, owner and CEO of LPI, the Johnson City hot tub maker now operating as Whisper Outdoor, which also builds golf carts, boats, and off-road vehicles (Lookout). He has never held office. He calls himself very conservative, pro-life, and pro-gun, and says he runs as an independent to avoid party pressure.

What he's running on. An elected, independent state auditor with subpoena power, ending the grocery tax, pausing voucher expansion while protecting students already in it, faster nurse training and more independence for experienced nurse practitioners, and no subsidies from households for data centers (campaign, Tennessean Q&A). He opposes Medicaid expansion until funding is identified, and he says he'll donate the governor's salary. "I don't want anyone in my ear," he told the Lookout about refusing donations.

The record, checked. The conviction, bankruptcies, liens, and PPP loan are covered in the table above. His business claims of nine companies, 750 jobs, and a patent count that's 7 in one place and 11 in another come from his campaign and aren't independently verified.

The money. $12 million loaned to his own campaign, $5 million of it in September, no outside donations, and $6.85 million in the bank (Lookout). Loans can legally be repaid later from contributions, so "self-funded" is accurate today, with that footnote.

Who's attacking him, and who's paying. Two operations, with a lot of overlap in the imagery.

• DeadbeatDave.com, paid for by the Blackburn campaign. It shows him in edited prison clothes.
• Choose Freedom PAC, which spent $4.2 million on TV ads and mail against him. The Times News traced its paperwork to political compliance firms whose leaders also serve as treasurers for the national Republican Senate and House super PACs and for several Trump PACs. Blackburn's campaign didn't respond to questions about it. I found no evidence her campaign coordinated with the PAC, which would be illegal, and the paper didn't claim any. The links are administrative, and they show where the money network sits (Times News).

Separately, someone spray-painted "Drop Out or Die" on a Johnson City building owned by his company. Police are investigating (WSMV).

Who's behind him. Republican state Sen. Janice Bowling of Tullahoma crossed party lines to endorse him, saying many people in her district had wanted her to meet him (Lookout).

The case for and against. Hatley's pitch is that he "made payroll, survived a recession, rebuilt from nothing," and that taking no donations keeps anyone from being "in my ear." Blackburn's site argues that "if Hatley couldn't keep his own tax affairs straight," Tennesseans shouldn't trust him with theirs. Worth adding on my end, no donors doesn't mean no interests. He still owns businesses the state regulates and taxes, and his campaign loans can legally be repaid from future contributions.

Lauren Pinkston (Independent)

Who she is. A Columbia resident raised in McNairy County, former elementary teacher and Lipscomb University business professor, with years of work building businesses that employ trafficking survivors (Lipscomb). This is her first race. The Forward Party endorsed her in April (Forward Party).

What she's running on. Ending the grocery tax through corporate affiliate-tax changes, repealing vouchers, opposing the state's recent business tax rebates, 50,000 new childcare and pre-K seats by 2030, a data center pause, and studying passenger rail from Memphis to Bristol (campaign). She opposes Medicaid expansion as currently designed, arguing low reimbursement is what's hurting rural hospitals. She calls herself a moderate, though the Lookout notes many of her positions line up with Democratic lawmakers.

The record, checked. In September she posted a video about mental health filmed at Andrew Jackson's former home in Jonesborough. Green's campaign called it "disqualifying" and asked her to quit the race. She told WPLN the video didn't paint Jackson positively and that wasn't her intent (WPLN). Her platform also says she's the only major candidate calling for a data center moratorium. Green and Hatley have published similar positions.

The money. $149,637 raised in the third quarter and $38,176 in the bank (Registry).

The case for and against. The Forward Party calls her "principled, collaborative, and focused on solving real problems." Green's campaign asked her to leave the race, arguing she splits the vote against Blackburn.

Robert Vick (Independent)

A retired East Tennessee educator from Dandridge with 40 years in public schools and a doctorate from ETSU. He opposes vouchers, supports rural emergency and maternity care, wants protections so residents don't subsidize data centers, and doesn't support fully ending the grocery tax (Nashville Banner Q&A). He's raised under $20,000, most of it his own money, and doesn't appear in any poll.

Side by side

The Ballad question

I didn't find any statewide voter guide that asks the candidates about Ballad directly, and for anyone in the Tri-Cities it may be the most important thing the next governor touches.

Ballad Health formed in 2018 when Tennessee and Virginia waived antitrust law so the region's two hospital systems could merge. In exchange, Tennessee's health department supervises Ballad under what's called a Certificate of Public Advantage, or COPA, with rules on prices, quality, and access. A KFF Health News investigation found Ballad missed many of its quality goals, including emergency room wait times (KFF Health News). Ballad points to a 24 percent drop in trauma deaths and fewer preventable hospitalizations as proof the arrangement works (WJHL).

The legislature voted this spring to end the COPA on June 30, 2028, and the bill became law as Public Chapter 904 in May. Rep. Timothy Hill of Blountville added an amendment so that, at the same moment, new hospitals in Northeast Tennessee no longer need the state's permission to open. Insurer price limits stay for five years or until a competitor opens, enforced by the attorney general. Every Northeast Tennessee House member voted for it (WJHL).

The Federal Trade Commission, which opposed the merger in the first place, warned lawmakers that ending oversight before a competing hospital exists leaves a monopoly with no state supervision. The COPA also shielded the original merger from antitrust challenge, so the deal can't simply be undone once oversight ends. In plain terms, the watchdog goes away and the competition hasn't arrived (FTC). The Hill amendment answered the FTC's concern about timing. It didn't answer the bigger one, which is that a new hospital is expensive and nobody has announced one. Rep. David Hawk of Greeneville voted yes but said oversight needs to continue until competition actually arrives (WCYB).

That's the next governor's job for the first eighteen months. Their health commissioner runs the oversight until it ends, and their administration decides whether to push for anything stronger before 2028. Here's where the four stand.

• Green says she would end Ballad's monopoly and has called its care substandard. She hasn't said how, beyond notifying Ballad of the intent.
• Hatley brought it up at an October 1 rally in Nashville while talking about rural hospital closures. "We cannot have people dying because Ballad Health is not making enough money. That's not an option," he said, per the Johnson City Press. I found no plan for the COPA itself.
• Blackburn talks about rural hospitals generally. I found no public position on Ballad or the COPA. Her campaign has taken the maximum donation from the Tennessee Hospital Association.
• Pinkston talks about rural hospital payments and telehealth. I found no Ballad position.

If Ballad matters to your vote, that's a fair question to put to any of them before November 3.

What I couldn't find

• Blackburn's position on Ballad or the COPA.
• Release records for Hatley's past tax liens, or any charge tied to the 1998 affidavit or 2006 report.
• The original sponsor of an AI-generated mugshot mailer Hatley says was sent about him.

Not found means not found. It doesn't mean it doesn't exist. If you have a record I missed, send it and I'll update this piece.

Make your own call

I started with one Facebook post and ended up in bankruptcy opinions and campaign finance filings for four people. It's not the usual way to get ready for an election, but I know a lot more now about who's paying for what I'm seeing.

The biggest thing I learned isn't about any one candidate. It's that most of what reached my feed was written by someone with money in the race, and most of it was built from real records with the inconvenient parts left out. The records themselves are public. Look at them.

Sources

• Cumberland County official sample ballot, Nov. 3, 2026
• Spry Strategies, Tennessee statewide survey, October 2026
• The Progress Fund, TargetSmart poll release (archived)
• WPLN, Tennessee's next governor might not break 50%
• WTVC, Beacon Center poll
• Tennessee Registry of Election Finance, third-quarter reports for Blackburn, Green, Hatley, Pinkston
• Who Funds Tennessee, Blackburn 2026
• Tennessee Lookout, Q3 finance reports
• Tennessee Lookout, Blackburn PAC donors
• Tennessee Lookout, Yass and Advance Financial
• Kingsport Times News, dark money attack ads
• DeadbeatDave.com (Marsha for Governor)
• Nashville Banner, Hatley profile
• WCYB, Hatley responds
• Spa Cover, Inc. v. Hatley, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, E.D. Tenn.
• American President Lines v. Hatley (bankruptcy dates)
• PPP loan data, LPI Inc.
• WJHL, LPI hiring in 2020
• TN Firefly, Hatley filing
• Tennessee Lookout, the independents
• Tennessee Lookout, Bowling endorses Hatley
• WSMV, threat at Hatley's business
• Tennessee Lookout, "Queen Pharma Mama" ad
• U.S. Senate roll call vote 314, 2022
• Congressional Research Service, municipal broadband
• USA TODAY Network, professor sues Blackburn
• News From The States, Press Association forum
• Blackburn campaign issues and Hagerty endorsement and list
• Tennessee Chamber endorsement
• Green platform and endorsements
• Tennessee Lookout, Memphis council resolution
• Memphis Flyer, resolution in committee
• Tennessee Star, Green's vote and Blackburn's response
• Hatley campaign
• Pinkston platform and Forward Party endorsement
• Lipscomb University, Pinkston profile
• WPLN, Pinkston video
• Nashville Banner, Vick Q&A
• Tennessean, candidates on health care
• Johnson City Press, Hatley holds Nashville rally
• Public Chapter 904 (HB 2278 / SB 2414), LegiScan
• FTC staff letter on the Ballad COPA
• WJHL, House passes COPA termination
• WJHL, Senate approves COPA termination
• WCYB, House vote and Rep. Hawk
• KFF Health News, Ballad ER wait times